A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a historic peak, is the dominant near-term driver lifting trader-implied probabilities toward the 1.30–1.34°C bin for September 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. August 2026 set a joint record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per ERA5, and ongoing equatorial Pacific warmth plus elevated global ocean heat content continue to support above-trend values, though model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce uncertainty around the 1.3–1.5°C range. NOAA and ECMWF updates through late September will refine the final monthly figure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSettembre 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Settembre 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
1,30–1,34ºC 48%
<1,30ºC 39%
1,35–1,39ºC 37%
1,40–1,44ºC 36%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 ott 2026
<1,30ºC
39%
1,30–1,34ºC
48%
1,35–1,39ºC
37%
1,40–1,44ºC
36%
1,45–1,49ºC
31%
>1,49ºC
34%
1,30–1,34ºC 48%
<1,30ºC 39%
1,35–1,39ºC 37%
1,40–1,44ºC 36%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 ott 2026
<1,30ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Vol.
48%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
36%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
31%
>1,49ºC
$45 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a historic peak, is the dominant near-term driver lifting trader-implied probabilities toward the 1.30–1.34°C bin for September 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. August 2026 set a joint record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per ERA5, and ongoing equatorial Pacific warmth plus elevated global ocean heat content continue to support above-trend values, though model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce uncertainty around the 1.3–1.5°C range. NOAA and ECMWF updates through late September will refine the final monthly figure.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$45Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a historic peak, is the dominant near-term driver lifting trader-implied probabilities toward the 1.30–1.34°C bin for September 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. August 2026 set a joint record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per ERA5, and ongoing equatorial Pacific warmth plus elevated global ocean heat content continue to support above-trend values, though model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce uncertainty around the 1.3–1.5°C range. NOAA and ECMWF updates through late September will refine the final monthly figure.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$45Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a historic peak, is the dominant near-term driver lifting trader-implied probabilities toward the 1.30–1.34°C bin for September 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. August 2026 set a joint record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per ERA5, and ongoing equatorial Pacific warmth plus elevated global ocean heat content continue to support above-trend values, though model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce uncertainty around the 1.3–1.5°C range. NOAA and ECMWF updates through late September will refine the final monthly figure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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