Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 99.4% implied probability, reflecting USGS-confirmed seismic data. A single 6.5 event occurred on September 17 in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, at roughly 98 km depth, consistent with typical subduction-zone activity along the Pacific plate boundary. No additional 6.5+ events registered in global catalogs for the interval, aligning with the roughly 120 magnitude 6+ quakes expected annually worldwide and the lower frequency of 6.5+ events. Market-implied odds could shift only if revised magnitude assessments or unreported aftershocks alter the official tally before final resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 14 al 20 settembre?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 14 al 20 settembre?
1 99.4%
2 <1%
0 <1%
$15,695 Vol.
$15,695 Vol.
21 set 2026
0
<1%
1
99%
2
1%
1 99.4%
2 <1%
0 <1%
$15,695 Vol.
$15,695 Vol.
21 set 2026
0
$5,878 Vol.
<1%
1
$5,184 Vol.
99%
2
$2,872 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 99.4% implied probability, reflecting USGS-confirmed seismic data. A single 6.5 event occurred on September 17 in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, at roughly 98 km depth, consistent with typical subduction-zone activity along the Pacific plate boundary. No additional 6.5+ events registered in global catalogs for the interval, aligning with the roughly 120 magnitude 6+ quakes expected annually worldwide and the lower frequency of 6.5+ events. Market-implied odds could shift only if revised magnitude assessments or unreported aftershocks alter the official tally before final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercato aperto: Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$15,695Data di fine
21 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 99.4% implied probability, reflecting USGS-confirmed seismic data. A single 6.5 event occurred on September 17 in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, at roughly 98 km depth, consistent with typical subduction-zone activity along the Pacific plate boundary. No additional 6.5+ events registered in global catalogs for the interval, aligning with the roughly 120 magnitude 6+ quakes expected annually worldwide and the lower frequency of 6.5+ events. Market-implied odds could shift only if revised magnitude assessments or unreported aftershocks alter the official tally before final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$15,695Data di fine
21 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 99.4% implied probability, reflecting USGS-confirmed seismic data. A single 6.5 event occurred on September 17 in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, at roughly 98 km depth, consistent with typical subduction-zone activity along the Pacific plate boundary. No additional 6.5+ events registered in global catalogs for the interval, aligning with the roughly 120 magnitude 6+ quakes expected annually worldwide and the lower frequency of 6.5+ events. Market-implied odds could shift only if revised magnitude assessments or unreported aftershocks alter the official tally before final resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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