Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding lead in the PA-16 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean and his established incumbency advantage in northwestern Pennsylvania counties. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Kelly advanced unopposed through the May 19 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1.3 million cash on hand compared to Democratic nominee Justin Wagner’s roughly $37,000 as of late June. Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer, also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary but faces structural barriers typical of challengers in this district, where Kelly previously won by double-digit margins. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these baseline factors, though late national shifts or unexpected developments could still influence final turnout.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPA-16 House Election Winner
PA-16 House Election Winner
$40,158 Vol.
$40,158 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
92%
Justin Wagner (D)
6%
$40,158 Vol.
$40,158 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
$23,846 Vol.
92%
Justin Wagner (D)
$16,312 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding lead in the PA-16 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean and his established incumbency advantage in northwestern Pennsylvania counties. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Kelly advanced unopposed through the May 19 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1.3 million cash on hand compared to Democratic nominee Justin Wagner’s roughly $37,000 as of late June. Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer, also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary but faces structural barriers typical of challengers in this district, where Kelly previously won by double-digit margins. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these baseline factors, though late national shifts or unexpected developments could still influence final turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$40,158Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding lead in the PA-16 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean and his established incumbency advantage in northwestern Pennsylvania counties. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Kelly advanced unopposed through the May 19 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1.3 million cash on hand compared to Democratic nominee Justin Wagner’s roughly $37,000 as of late June. Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer, also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary but faces structural barriers typical of challengers in this district, where Kelly previously won by double-digit margins. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these baseline factors, though late national shifts or unexpected developments could still influence final turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,158Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding lead in the PA-16 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean and his established incumbency advantage in northwestern Pennsylvania counties. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Kelly advanced unopposed through the May 19 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1.3 million cash on hand compared to Democratic nominee Justin Wagner’s roughly $37,000 as of late June. Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer, also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary but faces structural barriers typical of challengers in this district, where Kelly previously won by double-digit margins. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these baseline factors, though late national shifts or unexpected developments could still influence final turnout.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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