Current low global SARS-CoV-2 circulation, with test positivity rates near record lows of 1-2% and only modest reported cases through mid-2026, underpins trader consensus against a new pandemic. Official surveillance from WHO and national systems shows continued decline since late 2025, alongside established population immunity from prior infections and vaccination that limits severe outcomes from circulating Omicron sublineages. No variants under monitoring demonstrate elevated transmissibility or virulence that would trigger pandemic thresholds. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include emergence of a novel strain with substantial immune escape plus higher pathogenicity, or an undetected zoonotic spillover event, though ongoing genomic monitoring and low baseline activity make rapid escalation unlikely before year-end.