**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 21, 2026, centers on a consensus minimum near 24–26°C, with 26°C carrying the highest implied probability at 55%.** Multiple forecast models, including GFS runs referenced in real-time updates, project overnight lows around 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and moderate humidity typical of the coastal Mediterranean setting. This range aligns with September climatology for Tel Aviv, where average overnight lows hover near 21–24°C but have trended warmer this month, with recent daily minima often 23–25°C amid above-normal sea surface temperatures and limited nocturnal cooling. The 18°C-or-below outcome at 31% reflects residual uncertainty from potential model divergence or localized urban effects, though current conditions show no strong cold-air advection or unusual radiative cooling. Key near-term factors include stable high pressure, dew points in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, and sea-breeze moderation that caps how low temperatures can fall. Updated model guidance and official Israel Meteorological Service observations through the evening will likely anchor the final reading, supporting the market’s emphasis on the 24–26°C cluster over more extreme tails.