Official temperature observations from New York City stations on September 11, 2026, recorded a daily minimum of 72–73°F, directly aligning with the market’s dominant outcome and driving near-certain trader consensus. This value exceeded the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 63°F for the date, consistent with above-normal warmth persisting into mid-September amid a broader seasonal pattern. Hourly data showed the minimum occurring in the early morning hours before daytime highs reached the upper 70s to low 80s under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. Market-implied odds near 100% reflect verified post-event data rather than forecast uncertainty, though rare late revisions to official National Weather Service records or station-specific resolution criteria could theoretically shift results.