The recent hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve, including September 2026 FOMC projections showing a median federal funds rate near 4.1% through 2027 amid resilient growth and elevated core PCE readings, has driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.81% as of September 21. This reflects firmer inflation expectations and reduced odds of aggressive easing, with the yield curve exhibiting modest steepening pressures from fiscal supply and term premium. Market-implied odds now embed a higher-for-longer policy path versus earlier forecasts, though softer labor data or cooling CPI prints in coming months could still compress yields toward prior lows near 4.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and October employment and inflation releases.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$26,784 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 4,50%
68%
Sotto il 4,45%
62%
Sotto il 4,40%
43%
Sotto il 4,35%
35%
Sotto il 4,30%
22%
Sotto il 4,25%
19%
Sotto il 4,20%
14%
Sotto il 4,10%
7%
Sotto il 4,00%
7%
$26,784 Vol.
Sotto il 4,50%
$1,502 Vol.
68%
Sotto il 4,45%
$3,027 Vol.
62%
Sotto il 4,40%
$1,894 Vol.
43%
Sotto il 4,35%
$3,247 Vol.
35%
Sotto il 4,30%
$2,724 Vol.
22%
Sotto il 4,25%
$834 Vol.
19%
Sotto il 4,20%
$4,734 Vol.
14%
Sotto il 4,10%
$7,106 Vol.
7%
Sotto il 4,00%
$1,716 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The recent hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve, including September 2026 FOMC projections showing a median federal funds rate near 4.1% through 2027 amid resilient growth and elevated core PCE readings, has driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.81% as of September 21. This reflects firmer inflation expectations and reduced odds of aggressive easing, with the yield curve exhibiting modest steepening pressures from fiscal supply and term premium. Market-implied odds now embed a higher-for-longer policy path versus earlier forecasts, though softer labor data or cooling CPI prints in coming months could still compress yields toward prior lows near 4.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and October employment and inflation releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$26,784Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The recent hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve, including September 2026 FOMC projections showing a median federal funds rate near 4.1% through 2027 amid resilient growth and elevated core PCE readings, has driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.81% as of September 21. This reflects firmer inflation expectations and reduced odds of aggressive easing, with the yield curve exhibiting modest steepening pressures from fiscal supply and term premium. Market-implied odds now embed a higher-for-longer policy path versus earlier forecasts, though softer labor data or cooling CPI prints in coming months could still compress yields toward prior lows near 4.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and October employment and inflation releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$26,784Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The recent hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve, including September 2026 FOMC projections showing a median federal funds rate near 4.1% through 2027 amid resilient growth and elevated core PCE readings, has driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.81% as of September 21. This reflects firmer inflation expectations and reduced odds of aggressive easing, with the yield curve exhibiting modest steepening pressures from fiscal supply and term premium. Market-implied odds now embed a higher-for-longer policy path versus earlier forecasts, though softer labor data or cooling CPI prints in coming months could still compress yields toward prior lows near 4.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and October employment and inflation releases.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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