Traders have converged on a 26°C daily maximum for Chengdu on October 3 because real-time observations and regional forecast models consistently show the temperature peaking at that level amid partly cloudy skies with light rain and light easterly winds. Early October climatology for the Sichuan basin places typical highs between 20–25°C, and the current pattern—stable high pressure with modest daytime heating—keeps readings at the upper end of that range without exceeding it. Official station data reported through the afternoon align closely with this threshold. A modest shift in cloud cover, localized shower timing, or microclimate differences at the primary reporting site could still produce a 25°C or 27°C outcome before final resolution.