Official observations from Environment Canada stations in Toronto recorded a daily maximum of 14°C on October 6, locking in the market's near-certain outcome. This value aligned with model consensus from the prior 48 hours, which showed a stable high-pressure system suppressing temperatures below seasonal averages for early October. Historical climatology places typical highs around 15–17°C, making the observed reading a modest cool anomaly consistent with recent northerly flow. Traders assigned negligible probability to other bins because post-event verification leaves little room for revision once final data are certified. Only an unlikely station data correction or redefinition of the measurement period could shift the result.