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icon for Qualsiasi giustizia STF brasiliana rimossa dall'impeachment prima del 2027?
Politica·Brasile

Qualsiasi giustizia STF brasiliana rimossa dall'impeachment prima del 2027?

icon for Qualsiasi giustizia STF brasiliana rimossa dall'impeachment prima del 2027?
Politica·Brasile

Qualsiasi giustizia STF brasiliana rimossa dall'impeachment prima del 2027?

Sì

4% probabilità
Polymarket

$91,769 Vol.

Sì

4% probabilità
Polymarket

$91,769 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 95.6% reflects the steep procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices serve until age 75 with strong institutional protections; removal for crimes of responsibility requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold never met in democratic history despite periodic requests. Recent developments center on the Banco Master case and related internal STF disputes. Revelations of messages involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro, plus conflicts with Justice André Mendonça over investigation handling, have generated over 100 impeachment petitions (dozens targeting Moraes). Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Opposition figures, including Sen. Rogério Marinho, have proposed Senate rule changes to bypass the president's gatekeeping role via 49 signatures, but these face uncertain prospects and would still need plenary support amid a polarized environment ahead of October 2026 elections. Public polling shows notable backing for accountability measures, and many Senate candidates endorse scrutiny of the court. However, the current Senate composition, combined with the requirement for a supermajority and the compressed timeline before 2027, sustains high trader confidence that no removal will occur. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid passage and application of regimental reforms enabling faster processing, a major escalation producing unexpected cross-party support, or a late-breaking development forcing Senate action before year-end—though these remain low-probability given institutional inertia and historical precedent.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.

Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$91,769
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 95.6% reflects the steep procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices serve until age 75 with strong institutional protections; removal for crimes of responsibility requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold never met in democratic history despite periodic requests. Recent developments center on the Banco Master case and related internal STF disputes. Revelations of messages involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro, plus conflicts with Justice André Mendonça over investigation handling, have generated over 100 impeachment petitions (dozens targeting Moraes). Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Opposition figures, including Sen. Rogério Marinho, have proposed Senate rule changes to bypass the president's gatekeeping role via 49 signatures, but these face uncertain prospects and would still need plenary support amid a polarized environment ahead of October 2026 elections. Public polling shows notable backing for accountability measures, and many Senate candidates endorse scrutiny of the court. However, the current Senate composition, combined with the requirement for a supermajority and the compressed timeline before 2027, sustains high trader confidence that no removal will occur. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid passage and application of regimental reforms enabling faster processing, a major escalation producing unexpected cross-party support, or a late-breaking development forcing Senate action before year-end—though these remain low-probability given institutional inertia and historical precedent.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.

Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$91,769
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...

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65%
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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Qualsiasi giustizia STF brasiliana rimossa dall'impeachment prima del 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Qualche giudice del STF brasiliano è stato rimosso tramite impeachment prima del 2027?" a 4%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 4¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 4% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Qualsiasi giustizia STF brasiliana rimossa dall'impeachment prima del 2027?" ha generato $91.8K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jan 8, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Qualsiasi giustizia STF brasiliana rimossa dall'impeachment prima del 2027?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "Qualsiasi giustizia STF brasiliana rimossa dall'impeachment prima del 2027?" è "Qualche giudice del STF brasiliano è stato rimosso tramite impeachment prima del 2027?" a solo 4%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Qualsiasi giustizia STF brasiliana rimossa dall'impeachment prima del 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.