Traders assign overwhelming probability against an Elon Musk presidential announcement before 2027 primarily because the U.S. Constitution limits the office to natural-born citizens, a requirement Musk does not meet given his birth in South Africa. This structural barrier aligns with his repeated public statements declining interest in a candidacy and his ongoing focus on business operations alongside advisory roles in federal efficiency efforts. Historical patterns of similar eligibility questions show little precedent for rapid change. Late developments such as a formal constitutional amendment, unexpected shifts in Musk's stated intentions, or major legal reinterpretations remain theoretically possible but face substantial procedural and political hurdles that sustain the current trader consensus.