Ongoing military operations and incompatible demands over Rapid Support Forces (RSF) withdrawal from occupied cities remain the central barrier to any ceasefire between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF. As of late September 2026, SAF forces have reported incremental gains in North Kordofan and other areas while both sides continue drone strikes and clashes, with civilian casualties persisting. International mediation led by the United States, Quad partners, and the UN has focused on a proposed 90-day humanitarian truce tied to phased withdrawals and eventual political transition, yet the SAF has conditioned acceptance on full RSF pullback from all seized territories since 2023, while the RSF has welcomed a truce without major concessions. A June 2026 prisoner exchange marked a modest confidence-building step, but repeated past truce failures and ongoing arms flows sustain trader skepticism about near-term resolution absent major battlefield shifts or expanded sanctions.