Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election with the Republicans party, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for São Paulo’s October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election, with first-round intentions of 49–55 percent against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 29–38 percent. This positioning stems from sustained high approval of his state management (around 65 percent), a broad coalition that absorbed potential rivals after earlier withdrawals such as Kim Kataguiri, and elevated rejection ratings for Haddad exceeding 40 percent. Smaller candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França (Haddad’s running mate) register negligible support. Trader consensus pricing Tarcísio near 99 percent reflects these trends and the narrow window before voting. A late scandal, sharp turnout shift, or unforeseen national political development could still alter the outcome before first-round ballots close.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTarcísio de Freitas 98.8%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$312,750 Vol.
$312,750 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
99%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 98.8%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$312,750 Vol.
$312,750 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$148,307 Vol.
99%
Fernando Haddad
$51,583 Vol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$23,068 Vol.
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
$79,124 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election with the Republicans party, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for São Paulo’s October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election, with first-round intentions of 49–55 percent against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 29–38 percent. This positioning stems from sustained high approval of his state management (around 65 percent), a broad coalition that absorbed potential rivals after earlier withdrawals such as Kim Kataguiri, and elevated rejection ratings for Haddad exceeding 40 percent. Smaller candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França (Haddad’s running mate) register negligible support. Trader consensus pricing Tarcísio near 99 percent reflects these trends and the narrow window before voting. A late scandal, sharp turnout shift, or unforeseen national political development could still alter the outcome before first-round ballots close.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$312,750Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election with the Republicans party, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for São Paulo’s October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election, with first-round intentions of 49–55 percent against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 29–38 percent. This positioning stems from sustained high approval of his state management (around 65 percent), a broad coalition that absorbed potential rivals after earlier withdrawals such as Kim Kataguiri, and elevated rejection ratings for Haddad exceeding 40 percent. Smaller candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França (Haddad’s running mate) register negligible support. Trader consensus pricing Tarcísio near 99 percent reflects these trends and the narrow window before voting. A late scandal, sharp turnout shift, or unforeseen national political development could still alter the outcome before first-round ballots close.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$312,750Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election with the Republicans party, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for São Paulo’s October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election, with first-round intentions of 49–55 percent against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 29–38 percent. This positioning stems from sustained high approval of his state management (around 65 percent), a broad coalition that absorbed potential rivals after earlier withdrawals such as Kim Kataguiri, and elevated rejection ratings for Haddad exceeding 40 percent. Smaller candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França (Haddad’s running mate) register negligible support. Trader consensus pricing Tarcísio near 99 percent reflects these trends and the narrow window before voting. A late scandal, sharp turnout shift, or unforeseen national political development could still alter the outcome before first-round ballots close.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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