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icon for New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
Dunia·Pandemi

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

icon for New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
Dunia·Pandemi

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

8% peluang
Polymarket

$245,310 Vol.

8% peluang
Polymarket

$245,310 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Traders assign a 92.5% probability to no new COVID variant of concern before 2027 because circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages, primarily JN.1 descendants such as XFG, NB.1.8.1, and BA.3.2, show incremental changes in transmissibility or immune escape without increased severity or public health impact. Recent FDA advisory recommendations for XFG-targeted 2026-2027 vaccines and WHO monitoring data indicate these variants under monitoring remain manageable amid high population immunity and lower hospitalization rates. Genomic surveillance gaps exist, yet no rapid emergence of a more dangerous strain has appeared in the past several months, supporting the view that a formal variant of concern designation is unlikely in the remaining months of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Volume
$245,310
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Traders assign a 92.5% probability to no new COVID variant of concern before 2027 because circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages, primarily JN.1 descendants such as XFG, NB.1.8.1, and BA.3.2, show incremental changes in transmissibility or immune escape without increased severity or public health impact. Recent FDA advisory recommendations for XFG-targeted 2026-2027 vaccines and WHO monitoring data indicate these variants under monitoring remain manageable amid high population immunity and lower hospitalization rates. Genomic surveillance gaps exist, yet no rapid emergence of a more dangerous strain has appeared in the past several months, supporting the view that a formal variant of concern designation is unlikely in the remaining months of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Volume
$245,310
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 8% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 8¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 8% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $245.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 1, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" adalah 8% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 8% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.