Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from the prior contraction and roughly 2% year-over-year expansion, has anchored Polymarket trader sentiment around moderate outcomes for the Q3 print. Private-sector forecasts from Banxico surveys and analysts cluster near 1.3–1.5% for full-year growth, with the central bank recently lifting its 2026 projection to 1.5% amid stronger-than-expected second-quarter momentum, while private investment remains constrained by USMCA review uncertainty and governance concerns. Inflation near 3.26% and the policy rate at 6.5% signal limited stimulus support, leaving the outcome sensitive to incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand readings ahead of the October 30 release. The close distribution across the 1.5–2.5% bins reflects this balance between rebound effects and underlying headwinds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 28%
2.5-3.0% 19%
1.0-1.5% 10%
$25,517 Vol.
$25,517 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
10%
1.5-2.0%
33%
2.0-2.5%
28%
2.5-3.0%
19%
3.0-3.5%
2%
3.5%+
1%
1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 28%
2.5-3.0% 19%
1.0-1.5% 10%
$25,517 Vol.
$25,517 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
$452 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$339 Vol.
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,390 Vol.
10%
1.5-2.0%
$8,446 Vol.
33%
2.0-2.5%
$10,910 Vol.
28%
2.5-3.0%
$1,128 Vol.
19%
3.0-3.5%
$418 Vol.
2%
3.5%+
$433 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from the prior contraction and roughly 2% year-over-year expansion, has anchored Polymarket trader sentiment around moderate outcomes for the Q3 print. Private-sector forecasts from Banxico surveys and analysts cluster near 1.3–1.5% for full-year growth, with the central bank recently lifting its 2026 projection to 1.5% amid stronger-than-expected second-quarter momentum, while private investment remains constrained by USMCA review uncertainty and governance concerns. Inflation near 3.26% and the policy rate at 6.5% signal limited stimulus support, leaving the outcome sensitive to incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand readings ahead of the October 30 release. The close distribution across the 1.5–2.5% bins reflects this balance between rebound effects and underlying headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$25,517Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from the prior contraction and roughly 2% year-over-year expansion, has anchored Polymarket trader sentiment around moderate outcomes for the Q3 print. Private-sector forecasts from Banxico surveys and analysts cluster near 1.3–1.5% for full-year growth, with the central bank recently lifting its 2026 projection to 1.5% amid stronger-than-expected second-quarter momentum, while private investment remains constrained by USMCA review uncertainty and governance concerns. Inflation near 3.26% and the policy rate at 6.5% signal limited stimulus support, leaving the outcome sensitive to incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand readings ahead of the October 30 release. The close distribution across the 1.5–2.5% bins reflects this balance between rebound effects and underlying headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,517Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from the prior contraction and roughly 2% year-over-year expansion, has anchored Polymarket trader sentiment around moderate outcomes for the Q3 print. Private-sector forecasts from Banxico surveys and analysts cluster near 1.3–1.5% for full-year growth, with the central bank recently lifting its 2026 projection to 1.5% amid stronger-than-expected second-quarter momentum, while private investment remains constrained by USMCA review uncertainty and governance concerns. Inflation near 3.26% and the policy rate at 6.5% signal limited stimulus support, leaving the outcome sensitive to incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand readings ahead of the October 30 release. The close distribution across the 1.5–2.5% bins reflects this balance between rebound effects and underlying headwinds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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