Meta’s Superintelligence Labs continues scaling its next frontier large language model, internally codenamed Watermelon, following the April 2026 Muse Spark release. In a July internal town hall, chief Alexandr Wang stated the still-training model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks by using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, Avocado, amid Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. August reporting points to an October 2026 target for public release, potentially integrated into the consumer Hatch agent platform with enhanced tool-use and agentic features. Traders are watching for independent benchmark verification, any slippage from the October window, and Meta’s September 2 roadmap signals of additional larger models, while OpenAI and Anthropic continue rapid iteration cycles that could shift competitive positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$12,441 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
74%
November 30
93%
$12,441 Vol.
September 30
$3,394 Vol.
5%
October 31
$6,384 Vol.
74%
November 30
$2,663 Vol.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Superintelligence Labs continues scaling its next frontier large language model, internally codenamed Watermelon, following the April 2026 Muse Spark release. In a July internal town hall, chief Alexandr Wang stated the still-training model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks by using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, Avocado, amid Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. August reporting points to an October 2026 target for public release, potentially integrated into the consumer Hatch agent platform with enhanced tool-use and agentic features. Traders are watching for independent benchmark verification, any slippage from the October window, and Meta’s September 2 roadmap signals of additional larger models, while OpenAI and Anthropic continue rapid iteration cycles that could shift competitive positioning.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$12,441Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Superintelligence Labs continues scaling its next frontier large language model, internally codenamed Watermelon, following the April 2026 Muse Spark release. In a July internal town hall, chief Alexandr Wang stated the still-training model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks by using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, Avocado, amid Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. August reporting points to an October 2026 target for public release, potentially integrated into the consumer Hatch agent platform with enhanced tool-use and agentic features. Traders are watching for independent benchmark verification, any slippage from the October window, and Meta’s September 2 roadmap signals of additional larger models, while OpenAI and Anthropic continue rapid iteration cycles that could shift competitive positioning.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,441Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Superintelligence Labs continues scaling its next frontier large language model, internally codenamed Watermelon, following the April 2026 Muse Spark release. In a July internal town hall, chief Alexandr Wang stated the still-training model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks by using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, Avocado, amid Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. August reporting points to an October 2026 target for public release, potentially integrated into the consumer Hatch agent platform with enhanced tool-use and agentic features. Traders are watching for independent benchmark verification, any slippage from the October window, and Meta’s September 2 roadmap signals of additional larger models, while OpenAI and Anthropic continue rapid iteration cycles that could shift competitive positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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