Recent polling averages place Likud at 20–24 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, aligning with trader pricing that favors the 20–24 band while assigning meaningful probability to both lower and higher ranges. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has traded leads or stayed neck-and-neck with Likud in surveys, reflecting voter fragmentation and dissatisfaction with the current coalition’s performance on security and coalition management. Netanyahu’s broader bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold, leaving outcomes dependent on whether smaller lists clear the 3.25 percent electoral threshold and how post-election negotiations unfold. Variability across pollsters, including occasional outliers above 25 seats, sustains the spread across adjacent bins and underscores the narrow margin separating the leading scenarios.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui20-24 34%
25-29 25%
<20 21.5%
30-34 11%
$199,893 Vol.
$199,893 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
22%
20-24
34%
25-29
25%
30-34
11%
35+
3%
20-24 34%
25-29 25%
<20 21.5%
30-34 11%
$199,893 Vol.
$199,893 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
$57,895 Vol.
22%
20-24
$24,639 Vol.
34%
25-29
$44,735 Vol.
25%
30-34
$57,347 Vol.
11%
35+
$15,547 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Likud at 20–24 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, aligning with trader pricing that favors the 20–24 band while assigning meaningful probability to both lower and higher ranges. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has traded leads or stayed neck-and-neck with Likud in surveys, reflecting voter fragmentation and dissatisfaction with the current coalition’s performance on security and coalition management. Netanyahu’s broader bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold, leaving outcomes dependent on whether smaller lists clear the 3.25 percent electoral threshold and how post-election negotiations unfold. Variability across pollsters, including occasional outliers above 25 seats, sustains the spread across adjacent bins and underscores the narrow margin separating the leading scenarios.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$199,893Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Likud at 20–24 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, aligning with trader pricing that favors the 20–24 band while assigning meaningful probability to both lower and higher ranges. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has traded leads or stayed neck-and-neck with Likud in surveys, reflecting voter fragmentation and dissatisfaction with the current coalition’s performance on security and coalition management. Netanyahu’s broader bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold, leaving outcomes dependent on whether smaller lists clear the 3.25 percent electoral threshold and how post-election negotiations unfold. Variability across pollsters, including occasional outliers above 25 seats, sustains the spread across adjacent bins and underscores the narrow margin separating the leading scenarios.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$199,893Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Likud at 20–24 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, aligning with trader pricing that favors the 20–24 band while assigning meaningful probability to both lower and higher ranges. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has traded leads or stayed neck-and-neck with Likud in surveys, reflecting voter fragmentation and dissatisfaction with the current coalition’s performance on security and coalition management. Netanyahu’s broader bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold, leaving outcomes dependent on whether smaller lists clear the 3.25 percent electoral threshold and how post-election negotiations unfold. Variability across pollsters, including occasional outliers above 25 seats, sustains the spread across adjacent bins and underscores the narrow margin separating the leading scenarios.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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