Incumbent Carlos Giménez holds a commanding lead in Florida's 28th congressional district due to the seat's Republican lean after mid-decade redistricting and his prior victories, including a 29-point margin in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and alignment with district voting patterns where Donald Trump carried the area by 6.5 points that year. Phil Ehr, the Democratic nominee and repeat challenger, has secured recent endorsements and organized veteran outreach ahead of the November 3 general election, yet these efforts have not narrowed the gap in available polling or market pricing. An independent candidate adds a minor variable, but trader consensus assigns Giménez over 93 percent probability. Shifts could occur from unusually high Democratic turnout, late-breaking developments, or national political swings, though structural factors make such outcomes improbable based on current evidence.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFL-28 House Election Winner
FL-28 House Election Winner
$57,564 Vol.
$57,564 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Carlos Giménez (R)
94%
Phil Ehr (D)
6%
$57,564 Vol.
$57,564 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Carlos Giménez (R)
$33,834 Vol.
94%
Phil Ehr (D)
$23,731 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Carlos Giménez holds a commanding lead in Florida's 28th congressional district due to the seat's Republican lean after mid-decade redistricting and his prior victories, including a 29-point margin in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and alignment with district voting patterns where Donald Trump carried the area by 6.5 points that year. Phil Ehr, the Democratic nominee and repeat challenger, has secured recent endorsements and organized veteran outreach ahead of the November 3 general election, yet these efforts have not narrowed the gap in available polling or market pricing. An independent candidate adds a minor variable, but trader consensus assigns Giménez over 93 percent probability. Shifts could occur from unusually high Democratic turnout, late-breaking developments, or national political swings, though structural factors make such outcomes improbable based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$57,564Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Carlos Giménez holds a commanding lead in Florida's 28th congressional district due to the seat's Republican lean after mid-decade redistricting and his prior victories, including a 29-point margin in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and alignment with district voting patterns where Donald Trump carried the area by 6.5 points that year. Phil Ehr, the Democratic nominee and repeat challenger, has secured recent endorsements and organized veteran outreach ahead of the November 3 general election, yet these efforts have not narrowed the gap in available polling or market pricing. An independent candidate adds a minor variable, but trader consensus assigns Giménez over 93 percent probability. Shifts could occur from unusually high Democratic turnout, late-breaking developments, or national political swings, though structural factors make such outcomes improbable based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$57,564Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Carlos Giménez holds a commanding lead in Florida's 28th congressional district due to the seat's Republican lean after mid-decade redistricting and his prior victories, including a 29-point margin in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and alignment with district voting patterns where Donald Trump carried the area by 6.5 points that year. Phil Ehr, the Democratic nominee and repeat challenger, has secured recent endorsements and organized veteran outreach ahead of the November 3 general election, yet these efforts have not narrowed the gap in available polling or market pricing. An independent candidate adds a minor variable, but trader consensus assigns Giménez over 93 percent probability. Shifts could occur from unusually high Democratic turnout, late-breaking developments, or national political swings, though structural factors make such outcomes improbable based on current evidence.
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