**USGS data confirm a 6.0-magnitude earthquake northwest of Anchorage, Alaska, as the largest event on October 3, 2026, aligning with the market’s 98.7% implied probability on the 5.9–6.0 bin.** This shallow quake occurred in a tectonically active region along the Pacific–North American plate boundary, consistent with Alaska’s high baseline seismicity. Additional events that day, including a 5.9-magnitude quake near Indonesia and several in the 5.0–5.5 range worldwide, remained below the leading bin. Model consensus and preliminary magnitude estimates from the USGS have shown minimal revision risk so far. A realistic challenge would require a post-processing magnitude upgrade above 6.0 or discovery of an unreported larger event within the resolution window.