Brazil’s Senate holds more than 100 pending impeachment requests against STF justices, primarily targeting Alexandre de Moraes, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them, citing procedural norms and the absence of any historical precedent for removal. Conviction requires a two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81 members), a threshold that current alignments make difficult to reach before 2027. Recent internal STF conflicts over the Banco Master investigations have fueled public distrust and opposition proposals to ease filing rules, but these changes remain under discussion and would not shorten the multi-step legislative process. Traders’ 95.6% implied probability on “No” reflects these institutional barriers and the compressed timeline, though a post-October election shift in Senate composition or an unforeseen procedural breakthrough could still alter the outlook.