Recent outages and degraded performance have driven trader sentiment toward a high probability of another Codex disruption before year-end. OpenAI’s coding service, which powers web, API, CLI, and VS Code access, suffered a 56-minute full outage on September 25 due to an internal issue, prompting usage-limit resets for paid users. A separate degraded-performance event on October 7 produced Dot-turn failures, delayed responses, and reduced proactivity lasting over an hour, following elevated errors across Codex and related services on September 29. These incidents, occurring amid rapid scaling of the large language model-based agent, highlight ongoing reliability challenges typical of high-demand AI platforms. With no major stability upgrades announced and continued heavy usage, traders see recurring problems as likely through December.