US military forces conducted a targeted operation on January 3, 2026, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and transferring him to US custody on drug-trafficking charges, after which Vice President Delcy Rodríguez assumed the interim role. This action, accompanied by prior strikes on suspected drug vessels and subsequent sanctions relief plus major oil concessions to US-linked firms, has produced a cooperative framework centered on energy development and counternarcotics coordination rather than sustained confrontation. Recent steps include Venezuela’s removal from the US list of major drug-source countries in September 2026 and ongoing interim government-opposition talks, with no verified escalation in US force posture or territorial objectives since the initial raid. These developments anchor trader assessments of low near-term probability for any broader invasion scenario, though scheduled diplomatic or electoral milestones could still introduce volatility.