**Recent U.S. military actions against Iran have centered on targeted airstrikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in southern Iran and the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations.** As of early September 2026, U.S. Central Command conducted strikes on air defense, maritime, and mine-laying assets in response to Iranian threats to shipping and regional U.S. forces, following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. These operations align with a pattern of limited kinetic responses combined with sanctions and diplomatic pressure, consistent with expert assessments that a large-scale ground invasion would require substantial troop commitments and carry high risks. Traders price the “No” outcome at 85.5% because official statements and force posture continue to emphasize precision strikes and economic measures over territorial occupation or regime-change operations before the 2027 deadline.