Traders assign a 99.6% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable large-scale amphibious preparations or force concentrations in the Taiwan Strait over the past month. Recent developments include routine People’s Liberation Army aircraft and naval activity, lower sortie volumes than prior peaks, and Taiwan’s September precision-strike drills featuring indigenous drones and missiles under President William Lai. A Taiwanese defense assessment released in late August concluded that the PLA still lacks sufficient capacity for a full-scale multi-axis landing and sustained logistics. With only nine days remaining, any invasion would require prior visible buildup incompatible with current patterns. Diplomatic engagement, including references to an upcoming U.S.-China leaders’ meeting, further supports the market’s assessment. Unforeseen rapid escalation remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting indicators in verified reporting.