The trader consensus assigning over 54% probability to no Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the administration's relative stability more than 18 months into the term, with no major scandals, confirmation battles, or policy fractures triggering exits in recent months. Individual names such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry single-digit implied probabilities because public statements and reporting show no active pressure or disputes that would accelerate their departures ahead of the 2027 threshold. Broader factors including Senate confirmation patterns, historical cabinet tenure rates, and the absence of scheduled votes or investigations have kept specific resignation odds compressed, though any sudden diplomatic, legal, or legislative development could still shift positioning before the end of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNone before 2027 54.8%
Pete Hegseth 5.5%
Susie Wiles 5.4%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3.4%
$53,391 वॉल्यूम
$53,391 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
None before 2027
55%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Susie Wiles
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
3%
Doug Burgum
3%
Scott Bessent
3%
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Lee Zeldin
2%
John Ratcliffe
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Sean Duffy
1%
Scott Turner
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Chris Wright
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
None before 2027 54.8%
Pete Hegseth 5.5%
Susie Wiles 5.4%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3.4%
$53,391 वॉल्यूम
$53,391 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
None before 2027
$13,401 वॉल्यूम
55%
Pete Hegseth
$1,272 वॉल्यूम
6%
Susie Wiles
$3,683 वॉल्यूम
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$19,194 वॉल्यूम
3%
Doug Burgum
$1,114 वॉल्यूम
3%
Scott Bessent
$2,955 वॉल्यूम
3%
Kelly Loeffler
$947 वॉल्यूम
2%
Lee Zeldin
$762 वॉल्यूम
2%
John Ratcliffe
$676 वॉल्यूम
2%
Marco Rubio
$677 वॉल्यूम
2%
Brooke Rollins
$797 वॉल्यूम
2%
Sean Duffy
$806 वॉल्यूम
1%
Scott Turner
$477 वॉल्यूम
1%
J.D. Vance
$717 वॉल्यूम
1%
Mike Waltz
$886 वॉल्यूम
1%
Doug Collins
$780 वॉल्यूम
1%
Linda McMahon
$1,069 वॉल्यूम
1%
Russell T. Vought
$676 वॉल्यूम
1%
Howard Lutnick
$1,006 वॉल्यूम
1%
Chris Wright
$858 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$638 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The trader consensus assigning over 54% probability to no Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the administration's relative stability more than 18 months into the term, with no major scandals, confirmation battles, or policy fractures triggering exits in recent months. Individual names such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry single-digit implied probabilities because public statements and reporting show no active pressure or disputes that would accelerate their departures ahead of the 2027 threshold. Broader factors including Senate confirmation patterns, historical cabinet tenure rates, and the absence of scheduled votes or investigations have kept specific resignation odds compressed, though any sudden diplomatic, legal, or legislative development could still shift positioning before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$53,391समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The trader consensus assigning over 54% probability to no Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the administration's relative stability more than 18 months into the term, with no major scandals, confirmation battles, or policy fractures triggering exits in recent months. Individual names such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry single-digit implied probabilities because public statements and reporting show no active pressure or disputes that would accelerate their departures ahead of the 2027 threshold. Broader factors including Senate confirmation patterns, historical cabinet tenure rates, and the absence of scheduled votes or investigations have kept specific resignation odds compressed, though any sudden diplomatic, legal, or legislative development could still shift positioning before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$53,391समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The trader consensus assigning over 54% probability to no Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the administration's relative stability more than 18 months into the term, with no major scandals, confirmation battles, or policy fractures triggering exits in recent months. Individual names such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry single-digit implied probabilities because public statements and reporting show no active pressure or disputes that would accelerate their departures ahead of the 2027 threshold. Broader factors including Senate confirmation patterns, historical cabinet tenure rates, and the absence of scheduled votes or investigations have kept specific resignation odds compressed, though any sudden diplomatic, legal, or legislative development could still shift positioning before the end of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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