President Donald Trump has explicitly ruled out U.S. military strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive talks with Tehran through mediators and emphasizing that any escalation would occur only afterward. This stance aligns with Republican concerns over the war's unpopularity, which has contributed to declining approval ratings and Democratic leads on the generic ballot amid high energy prices from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations continue on proposals involving sanctions relief, blockade adjustments, and nuclear issues, though major concessions remain unresolved and no new large-scale hostilities have occurred in recent weeks. Traders appear to view the explicit pre-election pause, combined with mutual incentives to avoid further domestic political damage, as supporting a high probability that the current de-escalated state persists through the midterms.