Giorgia Meloni leads trader pricing for Italy’s next prime minister because her Brothers of Italy-led coalition has delivered unprecedented stability, recently becoming the longest-serving government since World War II while maintaining a parliamentary majority ahead of elections due by December 2027. She has publicly committed to serving the full term, and recent Senate approval of the Stabilicum electoral reform—introducing a majority bonus for coalitions above 42 percent and requiring named prime-ministerial candidates—could further favor the incumbent centre-right bloc. Emerging competition from Roberto Vannacci’s National Future party has narrowed the coalition’s polling edge and lifted his own odds, while centre-left figures such as Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte remain hampered by opposition fragmentation. These dynamics explain the wide gap between Meloni and trailing contenders.