Incumbent Democrat Don Davis holds a lead in recent polling for North Carolina’s 1st congressional district, including a September GBAO survey showing him ahead 50% to 43%. The race is a rematch in a seat redrawn in 2025 to favor Republicans by roughly five to seven points on the Partisan Voter Index. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Republican, citing the map and challenger Laurie Buckhout’s profile as a retired Army colonel. Recent developments include Buckhout’s release of her first television ad and a campaign visit by House Speaker Mike Johnson, alongside a Davis-backed ad attacking her support for 2025 tax and spending legislation. Trader consensus at 61.5% for Davis appears to incorporate his incumbency, cross-party appeal in eastern North Carolina, and Buckhout’s prior suspension from a prediction market for trading on her own candidacy. Early voting begins October 15 ahead of the November 3 general election.