Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले लॉस एंजिल्स में 6.5 + तीव्रता का भूकंप आया था?
2027 से पहले लॉस एंजिल्स में 6.5 + तीव्रता का भूकंप आया था?
3% संभावना
$20,096 वॉल्यूम
$20,096 वॉल्यूम
7 जन, 2027
3% संभावना
$20,096 वॉल्यूम
$20,096 वॉल्यूम
7 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$20,096समाप्ति तिथि
8 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
वॉल्यूम
$20,096समाप्ति तिथि
8 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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