Élodie Murphy-Gauthier of the Parti Québécois holds the highest implied probability in trader consensus for the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, followed by CAQ candidate Guy Veillette. Independent projections from mid-September place the riding as a toss-up or slight PQ lean, with the PQ projected at roughly 30–32% vote share against 28–29% for the CAQ in a riding that CAQ incumbent Marie-Louise Tardif won decisively in 2022. Murphy-Gauthier, a family physician, launched her campaign earlier in the year emphasizing health-care access and social services, while Veillette, a longtime local journalist and former political staffer, was named the CAQ nominee in August. Broader provincial polling trends showing PQ gains in Mauricie ridings, combined with the open seat and fragmented opposition vote among PCQ, Liberal, and QS candidates, underpin the current positioning. The race remains sensitive to late-campaign shifts in turnout or regional issues.