Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved Japan’s House of Representatives in January 2026 for a February 8 snap election that delivered the Liberal Democratic Party a commanding lower-house majority and launched her cabinet on a fresh mandate. The newly seated chamber began a standard four-year term, with the next regular election not due until 2030. Since February, the ruling LDP-Japan Innovation Party coalition has maintained legislative continuity, high cabinet approval, and opposition fragmentation without gridlock, coalition strain, or upper-house contests that would typically prompt another early dissolution. Traders therefore price a second 2026 dissolution as highly improbable absent major unforeseen shocks. Late-year catalysts that could still shift odds include a sudden policy crisis, sharp economic downturn, or collapse in coalition support ahead of the October extraordinary session.