Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs holds a strong position in California's 51st district, a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, following her primary win with 57.7% of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading by roughly 26 points among likely voters, reflecting consistent partisan patterns and limited crossover support. This backdrop supports trader consensus around a substantial but variable Democratic margin of victory, with several 30-40%+ buckets priced near 30-37%. Low-profile general election dynamics, turnout differences in San Diego County precincts, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts keep exact margin outcomes closely contested in the market. The November 3 contest offers few scheduled catalysts likely to produce sharp separation before ballots are counted.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाडेमोक्रेट 40%+ 38%
डेमोक्रेट 35-40% 33%
डेमोक्रेट 10-15% 33%
डेमोक्रेट 15-20% 32%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेट 40%+
38%
डेमोक्रेट 35-40%
33%
डेमोक्रेट 30-35%
30%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30%
30%
डेमोक्रेट 20-25%
32%
डेमोक्रेट 15-20%
32%
डेमोक्रेट 10-15%
33%
डेमोक्रेट 0-10%
32%
रिपब्लिकन जीतता है
31%
डेमोक्रेट 40%+ 38%
डेमोक्रेट 35-40% 33%
डेमोक्रेट 10-15% 33%
डेमोक्रेट 15-20% 32%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेट 40%+
$0 वॉल्यूम
38%
डेमोक्रेट 35-40%
$0 वॉल्यूम
33%
डेमोक्रेट 30-35%
$0 वॉल्यूम
30%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30%
$0 वॉल्यूम
30%
डेमोक्रेट 20-25%
$0 वॉल्यूम
32%
डेमोक्रेट 15-20%
$0 वॉल्यूम
32%
डेमोक्रेट 10-15%
$0 वॉल्यूम
33%
डेमोक्रेट 0-10%
$0 वॉल्यूम
32%
रिपब्लिकन जीतता है
$0 वॉल्यूम
31%
The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs holds a strong position in California's 51st district, a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, following her primary win with 57.7% of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading by roughly 26 points among likely voters, reflecting consistent partisan patterns and limited crossover support. This backdrop supports trader consensus around a substantial but variable Democratic margin of victory, with several 30-40%+ buckets priced near 30-37%. Low-profile general election dynamics, turnout differences in San Diego County precincts, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts keep exact margin outcomes closely contested in the market. The November 3 contest offers few scheduled catalysts likely to produce sharp separation before ballots are counted.
The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs holds a strong position in California's 51st district, a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, following her primary win with 57.7% of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading by roughly 26 points among likely voters, reflecting consistent partisan patterns and limited crossover support. This backdrop supports trader consensus around a substantial but variable Democratic margin of victory, with several 30-40%+ buckets priced near 30-37%. Low-profile general election dynamics, turnout differences in San Diego County precincts, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts keep exact margin outcomes closely contested in the market. The November 3 contest offers few scheduled catalysts likely to produce sharp separation before ballots are counted.
The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs holds a strong position in California's 51st district, a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, following her primary win with 57.7% of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading by roughly 26 points among likely voters, reflecting consistent partisan patterns and limited crossover support. This backdrop supports trader consensus around a substantial but variable Democratic margin of victory, with several 30-40%+ buckets priced near 30-37%. Low-profile general election dynamics, turnout differences in San Diego County precincts, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts keep exact margin outcomes closely contested in the market. The November 3 contest offers few scheduled catalysts likely to produce sharp separation before ballots are counted.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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