The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+20 and consistent primary results where Democratic candidates captured the large majority of votes, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Aisha Wahab secured the seat via the August 2026 special election runoff after Eric Swalwell's resignation, advancing alongside fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez from the June top-two primary while Republican candidates remained in single digits. This pattern aligns with historical performance in the East Bay district. A late scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or extreme national partisan shift could theoretically alter outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the structural margin in comparable seats.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$35,762 वॉल्यूम
$35,762 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
98%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
<1%
$35,762 वॉल्यूम
$35,762 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$14,006 वॉल्यूम
98%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$21,756 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+20 and consistent primary results where Democratic candidates captured the large majority of votes, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Aisha Wahab secured the seat via the August 2026 special election runoff after Eric Swalwell's resignation, advancing alongside fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez from the June top-two primary while Republican candidates remained in single digits. This pattern aligns with historical performance in the East Bay district. A late scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or extreme national partisan shift could theoretically alter outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the structural margin in comparable seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$35,762समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+20 and consistent primary results where Democratic candidates captured the large majority of votes, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Aisha Wahab secured the seat via the August 2026 special election runoff after Eric Swalwell's resignation, advancing alongside fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez from the June top-two primary while Republican candidates remained in single digits. This pattern aligns with historical performance in the East Bay district. A late scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or extreme national partisan shift could theoretically alter outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the structural margin in comparable seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$35,762समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+20 and consistent primary results where Democratic candidates captured the large majority of votes, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Aisha Wahab secured the seat via the August 2026 special election runoff after Eric Swalwell's resignation, advancing alongside fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez from the June top-two primary while Republican candidates remained in single digits. This pattern aligns with historical performance in the East Bay district. A late scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or extreme national partisan shift could theoretically alter outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the structural margin in comparable seats.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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