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icon for La Russie va-t-elle capturer Vodianske d'ici... ?
Géopolitique·Carte De L'Ukraine

La Russie va-t-elle capturer Vodianske d'ici... ?

icon for La Russie va-t-elle capturer Vodianske d'ici... ?
Géopolitique·Carte De L'Ukraine

La Russie va-t-elle capturer Vodianske d'ici... ?

$132,591 Vol.

30 sept. 2026
Polymarket

$132,591 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$53,848 Vol.

4%

December 31

$78,743 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have concentrated assault groups and light vehicles near Vodyanske (also spelled Vodianske) and adjacent settlements south of Dobropillya as part of broader efforts to advance in western Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian reports of Operation Vivaldi, launched publicly around mid-September 2026, detail the liberation of over 125 square kilometers in the Lyman sector, including villages that had been under Russian infiltration, which has disrupted Russian momentum in the immediate area. ISW assessments as of September 20 note Russian attempts to seize at least one settlement near Dobropillya to build infantry strength for further pushes, while highlighting Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions. The Polymarket contracts resolve strictly according to ISW front-line maps shading the defined intersection red, with trader pricing reflecting uncertainty over whether incremental Russian gains can overcome recent Ukrainian counter-moves before the September 30 or December 31 deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png

Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png

Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$132,591
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have concentrated assault groups and light vehicles near Vodyanske (also spelled Vodianske) and adjacent settlements south of Dobropillya as part of broader efforts to advance in western Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian reports of Operation Vivaldi, launched publicly around mid-September 2026, detail the liberation of over 125 square kilometers in the Lyman sector, including villages that had been under Russian infiltration, which has disrupted Russian momentum in the immediate area. ISW assessments as of September 20 note Russian attempts to seize at least one settlement near Dobropillya to build infantry strength for further pushes, while highlighting Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions. The Polymarket contracts resolve strictly according to ISW front-line maps shading the defined intersection red, with trader pricing reflecting uncertainty over whether incremental Russian gains can overcome recent Ukrainian counter-moves before the September 30 or December 31 deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png

Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png

Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$132,591
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

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Questions fréquentes

« La Russie va-t-elle capturer Vodianske d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « December 31 » à 23%, suivi de « September 30 » à 4%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 23¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 23% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Vodianske d'ici... ? » a généré $132.6K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jul 24, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Vodianske d'ici... ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Vodianske d'ici... ? » est « December 31 » à 23%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 23% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « September 30 » à 4%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Vodianske d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.