Macron’s second and final term concludes in May 2027, with the presidential election already scheduled for April, leaving minimal political bandwidth for convening a nationwide vote before year-end. No acute legislative deadlock or constitutional crisis has emerged that would prompt use of Article 11 or a référendum d’initiative partagée, and earlier presidential references to potential referendums on institutional or social issues have not advanced into formal decrees. Recent focus has centered on the 2027 campaign dynamics, a fragmented National Assembly, and unrelated policy areas such as social-media restrictions and foreign-security briefings, none of which have triggered referendum preparations. Traders therefore assign a 95% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any announced timetable or immediate catalyst that would justify direct voter consultation by December 31.