**St. Clair’s February 2025 New York petition seeking sole legal and physical custody of son Romulus, combined with allegations of Musk’s minimal early involvement, underpins the market’s overwhelming “No” consensus at 94.3%.** Court records and public statements show Musk has provided substantial financial support while publicly confirming paternity, yet he has not secured primary caregiving status or a favorable interim ruling. The case remains unresolved nearly two years after the child’s September 2024 birth, with recent September 2026 coverage confirming the dispute continues amid broader public tensions. Family-court norms in New York emphasize the child’s stability and primary caregiver, creating high barriers to full custody for a non-resident parent. Realistic shifts could occur via new evidence on parental fitness, a negotiated settlement, or late-stage developments at trial, though no such catalysts have materialized.