Traders see a 97.5% implied probability against Phoebe Gates facing arrest by year-end because no criminal charges or formal investigations have been announced despite extensive August 2026 reporting on her Phia shopping app’s alleged cookie-stuffing practices. Internal Slack messages and revenue data show the AI-powered affiliate tool knowingly claimed commissions on unearned sales, a tactic sometimes treated as federal wire fraud, yet prosecutors have taken no public action and legal experts assess civil penalties or settlements as far more likely than arrests for a first-time entrepreneur. The company has already disabled the disputed features, issued reversals, and added compliance oversight, further reducing escalation risk. While new evidence or regulatory intervention could theoretically trigger charges in the remaining months, the absence of momentum after months of scrutiny keeps the market consensus firmly against any arrest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPhoebe Gates arrêtée avant le 31 décembre ?
Phoebe Gates arrêtée avant le 31 décembre ?
Oui
2% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
2% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a 97.5% implied probability against Phoebe Gates facing arrest by year-end because no criminal charges or formal investigations have been announced despite extensive August 2026 reporting on her Phia shopping app’s alleged cookie-stuffing practices. Internal Slack messages and revenue data show the AI-powered affiliate tool knowingly claimed commissions on unearned sales, a tactic sometimes treated as federal wire fraud, yet prosecutors have taken no public action and legal experts assess civil penalties or settlements as far more likely than arrests for a first-time entrepreneur. The company has already disabled the disputed features, issued reversals, and added compliance oversight, further reducing escalation risk. While new evidence or regulatory intervention could theoretically trigger charges in the remaining months, the absence of momentum after months of scrutiny keeps the market consensus firmly against any arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$2,833Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a 97.5% implied probability against Phoebe Gates facing arrest by year-end because no criminal charges or formal investigations have been announced despite extensive August 2026 reporting on her Phia shopping app’s alleged cookie-stuffing practices. Internal Slack messages and revenue data show the AI-powered affiliate tool knowingly claimed commissions on unearned sales, a tactic sometimes treated as federal wire fraud, yet prosecutors have taken no public action and legal experts assess civil penalties or settlements as far more likely than arrests for a first-time entrepreneur. The company has already disabled the disputed features, issued reversals, and added compliance oversight, further reducing escalation risk. While new evidence or regulatory intervention could theoretically trigger charges in the remaining months, the absence of momentum after months of scrutiny keeps the market consensus firmly against any arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,833Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Traders see a 97.5% implied probability against Phoebe Gates facing arrest by year-end because no criminal charges or formal investigations have been announced despite extensive August 2026 reporting on her Phia shopping app’s alleged cookie-stuffing practices. Internal Slack messages and revenue data show the AI-powered affiliate tool knowingly claimed commissions on unearned sales, a tactic sometimes treated as federal wire fraud, yet prosecutors have taken no public action and legal experts assess civil penalties or settlements as far more likely than arrests for a first-time entrepreneur. The company has already disabled the disputed features, issued reversals, and added compliance oversight, further reducing escalation risk. While new evidence or regulatory intervention could theoretically trigger charges in the remaining months, the absence of momentum after months of scrutiny keeps the market consensus firmly against any arrest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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