**Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 77.5% implied probability** because frontier large language models remain clustered below 1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of mid-September 2026, with Anthropic's top entries such as Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Fable 5 leading at approximately 1503–1507. Incremental gains from successive releases by Anthropic, Google (Gemini 3.x variants near 1494), and OpenAI (GPT-5.x around 1485) have not produced the rapid capability jumps needed to reach the 1550 threshold in the remaining months. Competitive positioning shows Anthropic holding a narrow edge in human-preference evaluations, supporting its 12% odds, while other labs trail further behind. Upcoming model iterations face typical timeline risks and the inherent uncertainty of scaling laws delivering outsized Elo improvements quickly enough for market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun en 2026 78%
Anthropic 13%
OpenAI 4.7%
Google 1.7%
$126,226 Vol.
$126,226 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Aucun en 2026
77%
Anthropic
13%
OpenAI
5%
2%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Aucun en 2026 78%
Anthropic 13%
OpenAI 4.7%
Google 1.7%
$126,226 Vol.
$126,226 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Aucun en 2026
$26,251 Vol.
77%
Anthropic
$18,694 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$15,322 Vol.
5%
$12,081 Vol.
2%
xAI
$9,668 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$11,378 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,542 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,817 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 77.5% implied probability** because frontier large language models remain clustered below 1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of mid-September 2026, with Anthropic's top entries such as Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Fable 5 leading at approximately 1503–1507. Incremental gains from successive releases by Anthropic, Google (Gemini 3.x variants near 1494), and OpenAI (GPT-5.x around 1485) have not produced the rapid capability jumps needed to reach the 1550 threshold in the remaining months. Competitive positioning shows Anthropic holding a narrow edge in human-preference evaluations, supporting its 12% odds, while other labs trail further behind. Upcoming model iterations face typical timeline risks and the inherent uncertainty of scaling laws delivering outsized Elo improvements quickly enough for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$126,226Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 77.5% implied probability** because frontier large language models remain clustered below 1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of mid-September 2026, with Anthropic's top entries such as Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Fable 5 leading at approximately 1503–1507. Incremental gains from successive releases by Anthropic, Google (Gemini 3.x variants near 1494), and OpenAI (GPT-5.x around 1485) have not produced the rapid capability jumps needed to reach the 1550 threshold in the remaining months. Competitive positioning shows Anthropic holding a narrow edge in human-preference evaluations, supporting its 12% odds, while other labs trail further behind. Upcoming model iterations face typical timeline risks and the inherent uncertainty of scaling laws delivering outsized Elo improvements quickly enough for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$126,226Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 77.5% implied probability** because frontier large language models remain clustered below 1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of mid-September 2026, with Anthropic's top entries such as Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Fable 5 leading at approximately 1503–1507. Incremental gains from successive releases by Anthropic, Google (Gemini 3.x variants near 1494), and OpenAI (GPT-5.x around 1485) have not produced the rapid capability jumps needed to reach the 1550 threshold in the remaining months. Competitive positioning shows Anthropic holding a narrow edge in human-preference evaluations, supporting its 12% odds, while other labs trail further behind. Upcoming model iterations face typical timeline risks and the inherent uncertainty of scaling laws delivering outsized Elo improvements quickly enough for market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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