Ongoing tensions in the US-Iran conflict have kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed to commercial traffic since February 2026, with Iran asserting control over transit routes and signaling intent to impose “maritime service fees” after the June 17, 2026, 60-day toll-free window expired under the Islamabad Memorandum. Iranian officials, including negotiators, have stated that pre-war free passage will not resume and that any future administration—developed with Oman—will include charges for services such as navigation and security. The United States has opposed Iranian-controlled fees on legal grounds under international maritime rules, briefly floated its own 20 percent cargo levy in July before shifting emphasis to Gulf investment commitments, and continues to reject mandatory tolls. Trader consensus on a year-end resolution reflects persistent Iranian proposals amid stalled talks, though outcomes hinge on ceasefire terms, Oman-mediated frameworks, and enforcement realities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$983,543 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre
6%
$983,543 Vol.
31 décembre
$115,239 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing tensions in the US-Iran conflict have kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed to commercial traffic since February 2026, with Iran asserting control over transit routes and signaling intent to impose “maritime service fees” after the June 17, 2026, 60-day toll-free window expired under the Islamabad Memorandum. Iranian officials, including negotiators, have stated that pre-war free passage will not resume and that any future administration—developed with Oman—will include charges for services such as navigation and security. The United States has opposed Iranian-controlled fees on legal grounds under international maritime rules, briefly floated its own 20 percent cargo levy in July before shifting emphasis to Gulf investment commitments, and continues to reject mandatory tolls. Trader consensus on a year-end resolution reflects persistent Iranian proposals amid stalled talks, though outcomes hinge on ceasefire terms, Oman-mediated frameworks, and enforcement realities.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$983,543Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing tensions in the US-Iran conflict have kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed to commercial traffic since February 2026, with Iran asserting control over transit routes and signaling intent to impose “maritime service fees” after the June 17, 2026, 60-day toll-free window expired under the Islamabad Memorandum. Iranian officials, including negotiators, have stated that pre-war free passage will not resume and that any future administration—developed with Oman—will include charges for services such as navigation and security. The United States has opposed Iranian-controlled fees on legal grounds under international maritime rules, briefly floated its own 20 percent cargo levy in July before shifting emphasis to Gulf investment commitments, and continues to reject mandatory tolls. Trader consensus on a year-end resolution reflects persistent Iranian proposals amid stalled talks, though outcomes hinge on ceasefire terms, Oman-mediated frameworks, and enforcement realities.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$983,543Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions in the US-Iran conflict have kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed to commercial traffic since February 2026, with Iran asserting control over transit routes and signaling intent to impose “maritime service fees” after the June 17, 2026, 60-day toll-free window expired under the Islamabad Memorandum. Iranian officials, including negotiators, have stated that pre-war free passage will not resume and that any future administration—developed with Oman—will include charges for services such as navigation and security. The United States has opposed Iranian-controlled fees on legal grounds under international maritime rules, briefly floated its own 20 percent cargo levy in July before shifting emphasis to Gulf investment commitments, and continues to reject mandatory tolls. Trader consensus on a year-end resolution reflects persistent Iranian proposals amid stalled talks, though outcomes hinge on ceasefire terms, Oman-mediated frameworks, and enforcement realities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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