**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and IRGC enforcement actions have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely constrained since the 2026 conflict began, with daily transits averaging well below pre-war levels of 120–140 vessels.** Recent Kpler data show roughly 10–17 trackable commodity vessels crossing on recent days in September, often via adapted southern routes along Oman’s coast under US naval escort or using ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait to limit exposure. Iran has issued warnings against unauthorized corridors, conducted drone and missile incidents targeting vessels, and signaled plans for a broader “sanctions zone,” while operators respond with AIS-dark transits, rerouting, and shuttle systems that sustain limited flows of oil (around 6.5 million barrels per day through Hormuz in early September). These adaptations, combined with demining efforts and diplomatic maneuvering, have prevented any full zero-transit day reported by IMF PortWatch despite elevated war-risk premiums and insurance barriers. Upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic talks, potential US or Iranian military moves, and seasonal or regulatory shifts that could alter volumes before key resolution dates. Trader consensus reflects this persistent but incomplete disruption.