Dune: Part Three holds the lead at 54% implied probability, reflecting the franchise’s consecutive Best Visual Effects wins and Denis Villeneuve’s proven command of large-scale world-building ahead of its December 2026 IMAX release. The crowded field shows tight clustering around 50% for most 2026 titles, underscoring the category’s inherent unpredictability this far from nominations. Project Hail Mary sits at 25.5% on the strength of its March release and roughly 2,000 VFX shots that blended practical sets and puppetry with digital work, while The Odyssey at 11% and lower-probability entries like Godzilla Minus Zero and Avengers: Doomsday face headwinds from earlier release timing or mixed early industry signals. Key swing factors ahead include Dune’s critical reception, guild shortlists, and how practical-heavy campaigns from Nolan and Lord/Miller resonate with the Academy’s visual effects branch.