Rebeca Grynspan leads the market at 42.5% after topping the Security Council’s third straw poll on September 18 with nine encourage votes, five discourage, and one no opinion, ahead of Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett’s eight encourage and six discourage votes. The two Latin American and Caribbean candidates have dominated the three rounds of confidential polling since late July, reflecting broad non-permanent member support and momentum toward selecting the organization’s first woman secretary-general. Rodrigues-Birkett’s CARICOM backing and UN ambassador role sustain her 26.7% position, while Rafael Grossi’s 4.7% reflects five encourage votes amid reported U.S. interest but stronger opposition. Other candidates trail after weaker showings, with Michelle Bachelet withdrawing following the latest round. Further polls ahead of a Security Council recommendation to the General Assembly remain the key variable.