California’s new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025 to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, has shifted several formerly Republican-held districts toward Democrats and is projected to deliver a net gain of three to five seats from the current 43 held by the party. June 2026 primaries confirmed Democratic advances in targeted Central Valley and Southern California districts, including matchups against incumbents such as David Valadao and open seats previously held by Republicans, while a handful of races remain competitive due to candidate strength and registration edges. With the November 3 general election six weeks away and the national midterm environment favoring the opposition party, trader consensus centers on 47 or 48 Democratic seats as the most probable outcomes under the revised lines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour48 66%
47 23%
46 4.4%
49+ 3.4%
$22,179 Vol.
$22,179 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
<43
<1%
43
<1%
44
2%
45
2%
46
4%
47
23%
48
66%
49+
3%
48 66%
47 23%
46 4.4%
49+ 3.4%
$22,179 Vol.
$22,179 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
<43
$576 Vol.
<1%
43
$667 Vol.
<1%
44
$811 Vol.
2%
45
$883 Vol.
2%
46
$1,311 Vol.
4%
47
$5,485 Vol.
23%
48
$11,606 Vol.
66%
49+
$841 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.California’s new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025 to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, has shifted several formerly Republican-held districts toward Democrats and is projected to deliver a net gain of three to five seats from the current 43 held by the party. June 2026 primaries confirmed Democratic advances in targeted Central Valley and Southern California districts, including matchups against incumbents such as David Valadao and open seats previously held by Republicans, while a handful of races remain competitive due to candidate strength and registration edges. With the November 3 general election six weeks away and the national midterm environment favoring the opposition party, trader consensus centers on 47 or 48 Democratic seats as the most probable outcomes under the revised lines.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$22,179Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.California’s new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025 to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, has shifted several formerly Republican-held districts toward Democrats and is projected to deliver a net gain of three to five seats from the current 43 held by the party. June 2026 primaries confirmed Democratic advances in targeted Central Valley and Southern California districts, including matchups against incumbents such as David Valadao and open seats previously held by Republicans, while a handful of races remain competitive due to candidate strength and registration edges. With the November 3 general election six weeks away and the national midterm environment favoring the opposition party, trader consensus centers on 47 or 48 Democratic seats as the most probable outcomes under the revised lines.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,179Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...California’s new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025 to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, has shifted several formerly Republican-held districts toward Democrats and is projected to deliver a net gain of three to five seats from the current 43 held by the party. June 2026 primaries confirmed Democratic advances in targeted Central Valley and Southern California districts, including matchups against incumbents such as David Valadao and open seats previously held by Republicans, while a handful of races remain competitive due to candidate strength and registration edges. With the November 3 general election six weeks away and the national midterm environment favoring the opposition party, trader consensus centers on 47 or 48 Democratic seats as the most probable outcomes under the revised lines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Les démocrates remporteront-ils exactement 3 sièges à la Chambre au Nevada lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
65%
Oui
Les démocrates vont-ils remporter exactement 9 sièges à la Chambre en Pennsylvanie lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
35%
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Les démocrates gagneront-ils exactement 12 sièges à la Chambre au Texas lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
22%
Oui
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