**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northerly flow have kept daytime heating minimal in Chengdu on September 14, 2026, supporting the market's near-certain pricing on a daily maximum of 22°C or below.** Official and model consensus across sources shows an overcast, rainy day with highs forecast between roughly 19–24°C (most clustered near or under 22°C), driven by light northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and precipitation probabilities exceeding 80–95%. These conditions limit solar insolation and evaporative cooling, aligning with historical September patterns under similar synoptic setups where maxima rarely exceed early-20s Celsius. The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong trader confidence in official station readings (e.g., from China Meteorological Administration or equivalent) staying at or below the threshold, given converging forecasts and real-time observations around 19°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing that boosts insolation enough for a brief spike above 22°C, though current model agreement and ongoing rain make this low-probability before resolution.