Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts place 2026 real GDP growth near 2.2 percent on an annual-average basis, with the median SEP estimate revised upward to 2.3 percent in September. This consensus underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the 2.0–2.5 percent band. Solid consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains have offset higher interest rates and geopolitical pressures, keeping activity near potential despite Q2 growth printing at a modest 1.5 percent annualized rate. Sticky inflation has prompted the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance, limiting upside to growth while supporting the view that outcomes will cluster around the economy's long-run trend rather than materially exceed or fall short of it.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2,0–2,5 % 63%
>2,5 % 25.1%
1,5–2,0 % 11.9%
1,0–1,5 % 2.1%
$73,549 Vol.
$73,549 Vol.
28 janv. 2027
<0,5 %
1%
0,5–1,0 %
1%
1,0–1,5 %
2%
1,5–2,0 %
12%
2,0–2,5 %
63%
>2,5 %
25%
2,0–2,5 % 63%
>2,5 % 25.1%
1,5–2,0 % 11.9%
1,0–1,5 % 2.1%
$73,549 Vol.
$73,549 Vol.
28 janv. 2027
<0,5 %
$8,156 Vol.
1%
0,5–1,0 %
$17,766 Vol.
1%
1,0–1,5 %
$4,424 Vol.
2%
1,5–2,0 %
$8,749 Vol.
12%
2,0–2,5 %
$15,407 Vol.
63%
>2,5 %
$19,048 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts place 2026 real GDP growth near 2.2 percent on an annual-average basis, with the median SEP estimate revised upward to 2.3 percent in September. This consensus underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the 2.0–2.5 percent band. Solid consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains have offset higher interest rates and geopolitical pressures, keeping activity near potential despite Q2 growth printing at a modest 1.5 percent annualized rate. Sticky inflation has prompted the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance, limiting upside to growth while supporting the view that outcomes will cluster around the economy's long-run trend rather than materially exceed or fall short of it.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$73,549Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts place 2026 real GDP growth near 2.2 percent on an annual-average basis, with the median SEP estimate revised upward to 2.3 percent in September. This consensus underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the 2.0–2.5 percent band. Solid consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains have offset higher interest rates and geopolitical pressures, keeping activity near potential despite Q2 growth printing at a modest 1.5 percent annualized rate. Sticky inflation has prompted the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance, limiting upside to growth while supporting the view that outcomes will cluster around the economy's long-run trend rather than materially exceed or fall short of it.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$73,549Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts place 2026 real GDP growth near 2.2 percent on an annual-average basis, with the median SEP estimate revised upward to 2.3 percent in September. This consensus underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the 2.0–2.5 percent band. Solid consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains have offset higher interest rates and geopolitical pressures, keeping activity near potential despite Q2 growth printing at a modest 1.5 percent annualized rate. Sticky inflation has prompted the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance, limiting upside to growth while supporting the view that outcomes will cluster around the economy's long-run trend rather than materially exceed or fall short of it.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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