Traders assign near-certain odds that President Trump remains in office through September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of active impeachment proceedings, resignation announcements, or documented health crises that would trigger removal under constitutional processes. With midterm elections more than a year away and no ongoing legislative or judicial actions targeting his tenure, the consensus reflects standard patterns of presidential continuity during non-election periods. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sudden medical incapacity leading to 25th Amendment invocation, unforeseen scandals prompting voluntary departure, or rapid political shifts in Congress, though no such developments have surfaced in recent official statements or verified reporting.