Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island in mid-September, have sustained caution around Bab el-Mandeb transits despite partial carrier returns to the Suez route. IMF PortWatch data showed a 7-day moving average near 27 vessels as of September 13, while Kpler and BigOceanData tracking placed recent daily averages in the low-to-mid 20s, well below the pre-2024 baseline of roughly 60–80. The July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade and associated war-risk premiums near 0.5–1% of hull value continue to suppress volumes, particularly for tankers and Saudi-origin cargo, though non-targeted flows have stabilized. With resolution based on the IMF 7-day average ending September 30, current levels anchor trader consensus around the 25–29 range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNombre moyen de navires transitant par le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb fin septembre ?
Nombre moyen de navires transitant par le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb fin septembre ?
25-29 77%
<25 15.1%
30-34 6.3%
40+ 2.6%
$43,011 Vol.
$43,011 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
<25
15%
25-29
77%
30-34
6%
35-39
3%
40+
3%
25-29 77%
<25 15.1%
30-34 6.3%
40+ 2.6%
$43,011 Vol.
$43,011 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
<25
$18,071 Vol.
15%
25-29
$12,406 Vol.
77%
30-34
$5,404 Vol.
6%
35-39
$3,837 Vol.
3%
40+
$3,313 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island in mid-September, have sustained caution around Bab el-Mandeb transits despite partial carrier returns to the Suez route. IMF PortWatch data showed a 7-day moving average near 27 vessels as of September 13, while Kpler and BigOceanData tracking placed recent daily averages in the low-to-mid 20s, well below the pre-2024 baseline of roughly 60–80. The July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade and associated war-risk premiums near 0.5–1% of hull value continue to suppress volumes, particularly for tankers and Saudi-origin cargo, though non-targeted flows have stabilized. With resolution based on the IMF 7-day average ending September 30, current levels anchor trader consensus around the 25–29 range.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$43,011Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETSource de résolution
IMF PortWatchRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island in mid-September, have sustained caution around Bab el-Mandeb transits despite partial carrier returns to the Suez route. IMF PortWatch data showed a 7-day moving average near 27 vessels as of September 13, while Kpler and BigOceanData tracking placed recent daily averages in the low-to-mid 20s, well below the pre-2024 baseline of roughly 60–80. The July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade and associated war-risk premiums near 0.5–1% of hull value continue to suppress volumes, particularly for tankers and Saudi-origin cargo, though non-targeted flows have stabilized. With resolution based on the IMF 7-day average ending September 30, current levels anchor trader consensus around the 25–29 range.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Volume
$43,011Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETSource de résolution
IMF PortWatchRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island in mid-September, have sustained caution around Bab el-Mandeb transits despite partial carrier returns to the Suez route. IMF PortWatch data showed a 7-day moving average near 27 vessels as of September 13, while Kpler and BigOceanData tracking placed recent daily averages in the low-to-mid 20s, well below the pre-2024 baseline of roughly 60–80. The July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade and associated war-risk premiums near 0.5–1% of hull value continue to suppress volumes, particularly for tankers and Saudi-origin cargo, though non-targeted flows have stabilized. With resolution based on the IMF 7-day average ending September 30, current levels anchor trader consensus around the 25–29 range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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