**Nigel Farage triggered and won a Clacton by-election in August 2026 after resigning his seat in July amid a parliamentary standards investigation into an alleged failure to declare a £5 million gift from a major donor.** He returned as MP with 63.3% of the vote against novelty and fringe candidates after major parties boycotted the contest. The standards probe, paused during the by-election, has since resumed, with any adverse finding potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition that could force another vote. Traders assign 91% probability to no further by-election in 2026 because the investigation timeline, procedural hurdles for suspension exceeding 10 sitting days, and recall petition thresholds make a second contest before year-end improbable. Farage has publicly downplayed the risk, and no other vacancy triggers—such as resignation or disqualification—have emerged. The recent by-election outcome and limited remaining parliamentary calendar reinforce the current market consensus on low likelihood of repetition this year.