The strong market consensus favoring a "No" outcome for a public exhibition of the Salvator Mundi by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the Leonardo-attributed painting's prolonged absence from view since its 2017 Christie's auction and the absence of any verified institutional plans or announcements. Owned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the work has remained in secure Geneva storage amid canceled loans, including a 2018 Louvre Abu Dhabi showing, with Saudi ambitions centering instead on a permanent Riyadh or Al-Ula museum whose construction timelines extend well beyond year-end. This aligns with historical patterns of secrecy around high-profile private holdings and a lack of precursor signals such as guild previews or credible reporting from outlets like The Art Newspaper. While a surprise late-year loan or unveiling remains possible given the owner's occasional unpredictability, the lack of momentum in the current cultural calendar and exhibition schedules reinforces trader conviction around the implied 90.5% probability.