Russian forces have concentrated three combined arms armies and supporting airborne and tank units along a roughly 30-kilometer front southeast of Dobropillia since launching a mechanized offensive on 22 July 2026. They have captured nearby settlements such as Annovka and Novohryshyne, cut some Ukrainian logistics routes, and reached the eastern outskirts, while stepping up small-group assaults and drone strikes in mid-September ahead of seasonal changes. Ukrainian defenders, including elements of the 1st Azov Corps and 15th Operational Brigade, have repelled multiple mechanized attempts, conducted limited counter-moves near Bilytske, and prepared obstacles along approach roads. The city remains a key transport hub whose loss would open routes toward Pavlohrad and Kramatorsk; Russian progress depends on sustaining momentum against Ukrainian drone and artillery responses, while any Ukrainian reinforcement or successful defense of the immediate approaches could slow or stall further gains before winter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Dobropillia by...?
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?
$15,109 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
5%
December 31
19%
$15,109 Vol.
October 31
$1,891 Vol.
5%
December 31
$13,218 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png
Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have concentrated three combined arms armies and supporting airborne and tank units along a roughly 30-kilometer front southeast of Dobropillia since launching a mechanized offensive on 22 July 2026. They have captured nearby settlements such as Annovka and Novohryshyne, cut some Ukrainian logistics routes, and reached the eastern outskirts, while stepping up small-group assaults and drone strikes in mid-September ahead of seasonal changes. Ukrainian defenders, including elements of the 1st Azov Corps and 15th Operational Brigade, have repelled multiple mechanized attempts, conducted limited counter-moves near Bilytske, and prepared obstacles along approach roads. The city remains a key transport hub whose loss would open routes toward Pavlohrad and Kramatorsk; Russian progress depends on sustaining momentum against Ukrainian drone and artillery responses, while any Ukrainian reinforcement or successful defense of the immediate approaches could slow or stall further gains before winter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png
Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png
Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:08 PM ET
Volume
$15,109End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png
Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have concentrated three combined arms armies and supporting airborne and tank units along a roughly 30-kilometer front southeast of Dobropillia since launching a mechanized offensive on 22 July 2026. They have captured nearby settlements such as Annovka and Novohryshyne, cut some Ukrainian logistics routes, and reached the eastern outskirts, while stepping up small-group assaults and drone strikes in mid-September ahead of seasonal changes. Ukrainian defenders, including elements of the 1st Azov Corps and 15th Operational Brigade, have repelled multiple mechanized attempts, conducted limited counter-moves near Bilytske, and prepared obstacles along approach roads. The city remains a key transport hub whose loss would open routes toward Pavlohrad and Kramatorsk; Russian progress depends on sustaining momentum against Ukrainian drone and artillery responses, while any Ukrainian reinforcement or successful defense of the immediate approaches could slow or stall further gains before winter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png
Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png
Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$15,109End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have concentrated three combined arms armies and supporting airborne and tank units along a roughly 30-kilometer front southeast of Dobropillia since launching a mechanized offensive on 22 July 2026. They have captured nearby settlements such as Annovka and Novohryshyne, cut some Ukrainian logistics routes, and reached the eastern outskirts, while stepping up small-group assaults and drone strikes in mid-September ahead of seasonal changes. Ukrainian defenders, including elements of the 1st Azov Corps and 15th Operational Brigade, have repelled multiple mechanized attempts, conducted limited counter-moves near Bilytske, and prepared obstacles along approach roads. The city remains a key transport hub whose loss would open routes toward Pavlohrad and Kramatorsk; Russian progress depends on sustaining momentum against Ukrainian drone and artillery responses, while any Ukrainian reinforcement or successful defense of the immediate approaches could slow or stall further gains before winter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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